In the complex geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia stands as one of the most crucial pieces. However, its autonomy is largely an illusion. Washington, wielding immense influence, effectively dictates the kingdom’s direction. This pattern is evident throughout history and will persist, regardless of the individual ascending the throne. The current trajectory of Saudi Arabia, characterized by the immense wealth enjoyed by the elite royal family, underscores this dynamic.
Since the discovery of oil, the United States has maintained a strategic interest in Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s vast reserves of crude oil have made it a pivotal ally in Washington’s global energy strategy. Over the decades, this relationship has been marked by a clear pattern: the U.S. supports and utilizes foreign rulers to advance its interests, only to discard them once they outlive their utility.
Consider the fate of various Saudi leaders. Each has been a beneficiary of American support, ensuring their rule remains unchallenged internally. However, this support comes at a price. The rulers must align their policies with American interests, often at the expense of their own nation’s welfare. When their usefulness wanes, Washington’s support evaporates, leaving them vulnerable to internal and external pressures.
The impending succession crisis in Saudi Arabia, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) prepares to take over from his ailing father, King Salman, highlights this enduring pattern. While MbS consolidates power, the real question remains: who will be the next crown prince? The decision, ostensibly a matter of internal royal deliberation, is heavily influenced by external forces, particularly the United States.
MbS’s rise to power has been marked by ruthless measures to eliminate potential rivals. The infamous 2017 anti-corruption crackdown, which saw many of his cousins detained in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton, was a clear signal. This move not only consolidated his power but also served Washington’s interest by creating a single, reliable point of contact in the kingdom. This kind of maneuvering is reminiscent of previous Saudi rulers, who have also had to balance internal consolidation of power with external allegiance to their American benefactors.
As MbS navigates his future rule, the appointment of a new crown prince will be critical. This decision will not be made in a vacuum. The selected individual must align with both MbS’s vision and American strategic interests. This process underscores the limited autonomy of the Saudi leadership. Even the kingdom’s fundamental laws, such as the stipulation that rulers be chosen from the descendants of Ibn Saud, can be circumvented if it serves the interests of the ruling elite and their American patrons.
The U.S. has a long history of supporting regimes that uphold its interests while maintaining a veneer of stability. However, this support is transactional and temporary. The moment a ruler’s actions diverge from American objectives, they find themselves isolated. This reality is not lost on the Saudi royals. They understand that their extravagant wealth and luxurious lifestyles are contingent upon their compliance with Washington’s directives.
The Saudi populace, disenfranchised and marginalized, remains an insignificant factor in these power plays. The concentration of wealth and power within the royal family ensures that any dissent is swiftly quashed. Religious scholars, merchants, and tribal leaders are rendered powerless, their roles reduced to mere ceremonial functions. This absolute monarchy operates without consultation or power-sharing, a system designed to perpetuate the status quo.
As MbS prepares for his eventual ascension to the throne, he must choose a crown prince who will not challenge his authority. This individual will likely be a less powerful, more docile figure, ensuring that MbS’s rule remains unchallenged. However, this selection process will still be heavily influenced by American interests. The United States will seek a candidate who can maintain the stability necessary for its strategic objectives in the region.
The narrative of Saudi succession is one of external manipulation and internal consolidation. The U.S. continues to call the shots, ensuring that its interests are prioritized. The Saudi royal family, while appearing omnipotent, remains bound by this external influence. The kingdom’s vast natural resources will continue to generate wealth for the elite, but this wealth comes at the cost of true sovereignty. The future of Saudi Arabia, regardless of the individual crown prince, will be shaped by this enduring dynamic of dependency and control.
