China’s Potential Strategy
China might isolate Taiwan, damage its economy, and force it to submit to Beijing’s control without firing a shot. Recent actions by Chinese leader Xi Jinping have raised fears about China’s intentions towards Taiwan, especially given China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Quarantine: A Third Option
A Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), suggests a third strategy beyond invasion or blockade: quarantine. This involves using “gray zone” tactics—actions just below the threshold of war. The China Coast Guard, maritime militia, and various safety agencies could cut off Taiwan’s access to ports, halting essential supplies like energy.
Gray Zone Tactics in Action
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military force, would support these efforts. According to the CSIS report, China has increasingly pressured Taiwan in recent years, raising fears of conflict. At a recent defense summit, Chinese Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun threatened those supporting Taiwan’s independence.
Recent Examples of Escalation
China’s gray zone tactics were evident in recent clashes between the China Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy. These incidents highlight China’s willingness to use force in maritime disputes. Similarly, China’s economic intimidation of Taiwan has increased under Xi. Despite never having controlled Taiwan, China’s ruling Communist Party claims the island and vows to reunify with it.
Challenges for the US and Allies
The CSIS report suggests that a quarantine could complicate US and allied responses. The China Coast Guard, considered a law enforcement agency, could enforce a quarantine, which differs from a military blockade. International law views a blockade as an act of war, but a quarantine led by the coast guard is not.
Taiwan’s Limited Defenses
The China Coast Guard has significant resources, with 150 ocean-going vessels and 400 smaller ones. In contrast, Taiwan’s coast guard has only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller ones. A quarantine could economically strangle Taiwan, as operators might avoid the risk of their assets being seized by Chinese authorities.
Economic Impact
A limited quarantine could extend to air traffic, deterring flights to Taiwan. China’s regular military flights around the island could reinforce this. The CSIS report notes that a quarantine would not close the Taiwan Strait, reducing the legal basis for US intervention.
Legal and Operational Maneuvers
China could enforce a quarantine without declaring it, using customs declarations for vessels calling in Taiwan. Noncompliant ships could face inspections and seizures, targeting key ports like Kaohsiung, responsible for most of Taiwan’s imports.
Global Economic Repercussions
Taiwan is crucial in global supply chains, especially in semiconductor manufacturing. A quarantine would have global economic repercussions. While most nations recognize Beijing over Taiwan, the island has strong unofficial relations with major western democracies, bolstered by Beijing’s threats.
Economic Interdependence
Taiwan and China have deep economic ties. Last year, 35% of Taiwan’s exports went to the Chinese mainland, primarily integrated circuits and electronic components. Imports from the mainland accounted for 20% of Taiwan’s total imports. Taiwanese companies have invested significantly in China, creating millions of jobs.
Public Response and Risks
Quarantines can rally populations around their governments, rather than inciting rebellion. Historical evidence shows that even severe blockades have limited coercive value. A quarantine might push Taiwan to declare independence, potentially leading to armed conflict.
Strategic Patience
For China, patience is crucial. Escalation and invasion are not cost-effective, as war costs lives and national wealth. Therefore, a strategy of quarantine and gray zone tactics might be the most viable path for Beijing to achieve its goals.
