The Assassination
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has sent shockwaves through the region. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, an “airborne guided projectile” killed Ismail Haniyeh, aged 62. The attack occurred in north Tehran, where Haniyeh was staying in the special residences for war veterans. His bodyguard also died in the strike. The timing of the attack coincided with the inauguration of Iran’s new President, Masaoud Pezeshkian, whom Haniyeh had met just hours earlier.
Escalation of Conflict
Haniyeh’s assassination increases the ongoing conflict significantly. As Hamas’s political leader and a key figure in negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, his death complicates efforts to broker a ceasefire. Analysts suggest that Israel likely carried out the assassination, which both Hamas and Iran have accused it of. This action will provoke a strong response from Tehran and further destabilize the region.
Israel’s Involvement in the Assassination
Israel has a long history of conducting assassination operations across borders, targeting Hamas leaders both within the Palestinian territories and beyond. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran likely adds to this list. While Israel has not claimed responsibility, and the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment, the accusation fits a pattern of previous actions.
Israel sometimes confirms its role in such targeted killings. For instance, the Israeli military recently acknowledged killing Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s senior military commander, in an airstrike in Beirut. However, Israel often maintains strategic ambiguity, allowing it to deny direct involvement while still achieving its objectives. This approach was evident in past high-profile assassinations of Hamas leaders, such as Yahya Ayyash, Khaled Meshal, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, and Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.
Haniyeh’s Influence
Ismail Haniyeh was a prominent figure in Hamas for over two decades. In 2006, he led Hamas to a legislative victory over Fatah. The West, however, refused to cooperate with the new government, leading to his dismissal. He became the head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017 and was designated a terrorist by the United States in 2018. Despite his controversial status, Haniyeh was seen as a pragmatic leader within Gaza and the West Bank.
Leadership Succession
Two probable successors to Haniyeh are Khaled Meshaal, a veteran Hamas official, and Khalil al-Hayya, closely associated with Haniyeh. The new leader will face the challenge of either continuing Hamas’s military activities or seeking political compromise. The latter option seems unlikely given the current tensions.
International Reactions
The international community has reacted strongly to the assassination. In Gaza and Palestine, the killing is seen as a major blow to the ceasefire negotiations. Many in Gaza viewed Haniyeh as a moderate and pragmatic leader. Hamas described the assassination as a “grave escalation” aimed at breaking the will of the Palestinian people. The United States denied involvement in Haniyeh’s death but reiterated support for Israel. China condemned the assassination, calling for a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
Haniyeh’s Funeral
Haniyeh’s funeral services will be held in Tehran and Qatar, with a burial in Lusail, Qatar. The Iranian government has declared three days of public mourning.
