Implications for US-Iran Relations
These assassinations complicate the already fragile US-Iran diplomatic efforts. Netanyahu’s strategy might also aim to box in US Vice President Kamala Harris, limiting her ability to diverge from Biden’s policies on Israel if she becomes president. By creating a crisis, Netanyahu potentially forces Harris into a reactive position, where she must respond to existing tensions rather than pursue new initiatives.
Strategic Shift for Kamala Harris
Harris’s rhetoric and body language have suggested a shift, albeit subtle, from Biden’s stance on Israel. This shift, while not yet substantive, indicates the potential for a more significant policy change. Netanyahu, wary of this possibility, likely aims to preemptively constrain Harris’s policy options. By escalating tensions, he could force her into a defensive posture, aligning her response with Israel’s strategic interests.
Israel’s Strategic Assassinations in the Middle East
Israel has conducted two significant assassinations in the Middle East, targeting high-profile figures within Hezbollah and Hamas. These actions have potential consequences that are difficult to fully anticipate. The first assassination targeted Fuad Shuker, the most senior military commander in Hezbollah, in Beirut. The second assassination involved Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. Haniyeh was in Iran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president.
Israel Sends a Clear Message
Israel’s decision to assassinate Haniyeh in Tehran, rather than in Qatar where he resided, aims to send a dual message. Firstly, it seeks to undermine any potential diplomatic opportunities arising from President Masoud Pezeshkian’s election, particularly regarding US-Iran relations. Secondly, it conveys to Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah and other regional militias, that they are not safe, even within Iran. This act embarrasses Iran, especially if reports that Haniyeh was near the presidential compound are accurate.
Potential for Escalation
Israel’s actions seem designed to provoke a response from Iran, increasing the likelihood of an escalatory spiral. The Israeli government, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to anticipate and even welcome this escalation. Netanyahu’s strategic calculations likely include the current lame-duck status of the Biden administration, which has shown limited willingness to pressure Israel.
Iran’s Calculated Responses
Iran’s leadership tends to be cautious and calculated in its actions. This approach has made Iran a formidable opponent for Israel. In past incidents, such as the attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Iran’s responses have been measured to inflict damage without provoking a significant escalation. However, the simultaneous attacks on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran within 12 hours may necessitate a coordinated response, involving multiple actors with varying objectives and levels of discipline.
Long-term Consequences for Israel
In the short term, Netanyahu’s actions may solidify his position. However, in the long run, such strategies have historically backfired, harming Israel’s strategic interests. The American public’s growing fatigue with prolonged conflicts and the increasing awareness of Israel’s role in potentially dragging the US into new wars could shift political dynamics in the US, reducing support for Israeli actions.
Risks of Escalation
The potential for escalation is significant. Hezbollah’s military capabilities, with over 100,000 fighters and a substantial arsenal of missiles and rockets, pose a serious threat to Israel. Israel’s air defenses, while strong, are not impenetrable. The involvement of other Iranian-backed militias could further complicate the conflict, potentially overwhelming Israel’s defense systems and leading to widespread casualties and destruction.
