Historical Context and Strategic Objectives
Central to understanding Iranian foreign policy is recognizing the importance of the Arab region. While Iran often clashes with the United States and Israel, its primary goal is to gain recognition as a regional power.
Expansionist Tendencies and Arab Relations
Iran views itself as an unfolding revolution, inclining towards expansionism although the lack of border wars or existential threats. Geopolitical factors directed its focus westward into the Arab world. The north, dominated by Russia, was too dangerous, while the east, represented by India, offered limited influence despite cultural ties. The south, through the Gulf of Oman, lacked powerful rivals, but Iran was never a maritime empire. Therefore, Iran aimed to spread its revolution westward.
Iran’s historical resentment towards Arabs stems from the Battle of al-Qadisiyah in 636, which led to the fall of the Sasanian Empire and the introduction of Islam into Iran. Despite enriching Islamic civilization, Iran remained distant from the Arab decision-making centers until the 16th century. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini believed the revolution would inspire similar movements in Arab countries, positioning Iran as a leader in the Islamic world. This vision was enshrined in Article 5 of the Iranian Constitution, indicating a commitment to paving the way for the coming of the Imam of the Age.
Deception as a Foreign Policy Tool
Iranian leaders have often used deception to extend their influence in the Middle East. Shiites practice two types of deception, known as “taqiyya.” The first type aims to ward off evil and avoid conflict, while the second involves evasion to achieve objectives. The Safavid Empire, ruling Persia from 1501 to 1736, embraced the second type, allowing it to break covenants and treaties. This tradition continues today, with Iran being known for its evasive diplomacy.
By the end of 2012, Iran had secured its influence over the Syrian government while denying the presence of combat forces in the country. Despite media reports of Iranian casualties in Syria, Iran claimed it was only protecting Shiite shrines. This pattern of deception extends to other areas as well. In response to internal criticism of the 2015 nuclear agreement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei admitted to accepting the deal under the concept of taqiyya, concealing his true intentions.
Regional Influence and Inherent Weakness
Iran has often retreated when faced with significant resistance. After the U.S. killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran’s retaliation was limited to targeting a U.S. base in Iraq, causing no serious injuries. Similarly, Israeli strikes on Iranian positions in Syria have destroyed bases and weapon depots, yet Iran remains silent on these attacks, focusing instead on propaganda to maintain its image.
In April, Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus and the killing of a senior general embarrassed Tehran. Despite claiming successful retaliation, most Iranian drones and missiles were intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition. The few that reached Israel had minimal impact. Iran’s leadership, however, declared their strikes a success, convincing their followers of their strength.
Iran’s Weakness
Iran aims to gain U.S. and Israeli recognition as a legitimate regional power. Although Iran’s ambitions challenge the U.S., Americans see Tehran as a potential regional partner due to its pragmatism.
When Iran faces serious resistance, it tends to back down. For example, after the U.S. killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran’s response targeted a U.S. base in Iraq, causing no significant injuries. Israel’s ongoing strikes on Iranian military presence in Syria further illustrate this pattern. These attacks have destroyed bases and weapons depots, yet Iran avoids direct confrontation with Israel.
In April, Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Damascus, killing a senior general. Iran’s response, which involved targeting Israeli territory, appeared as expensive fireworks rather than a serious threat. The U.S.-led coalition intercepted most Iranian drones and missiles before they reached Israel. Despite this, Iranian leadership claimed their strikes achieved their goals, maintaining their image of strength among followers.
Strategic Goals and Regional Relations
Iran seeks U.S. and Israeli acceptance of its status as a regional power. While challenging the U.S., Iran’s pragmatism allows for potential partnership. Iran has supported the Palestinian cause to outflank Arab regimes and assert its regional power. Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Iran has sought coordination with Washington, aiming to build on its regional gains over the past 45 years rather than perpetuating its reputation as a pariah state.
