Turkey Gains as Iran Weakens Under Israeli Pressure
In the past year, Iran has experienced significant losses in the face of repeated Israeli military actions, resulting in a rapid decline in its regional influence. Israel has continued its targeted strikes, focusing on Iran’s key assets, such as Hezbollah, while Iran struggles to respond effectively. Turkey, watching from the sidelines, has positioned itself strategically to take full advantage of Iran’s weakening grip. With Hezbollah, a crucial ally to Iran, taking heavy losses, Turkey has found an opportunity to gain ground. The geopolitical landscape has shifted as Turkey strengthens its position by capitalizing on Iran’s strategic failures.
Turkey’s Calculated Moves in Syria and Iraq
Turkey has made significant strides in Syria and Iraq, acting on the weakening influence of Iran’s Shia-based alliances in both countries. Iran has long relied on the sectarian divide to secure its influence, particularly through Hezbollah, to support the Assad regime in Syria. Now, with Hezbollah’s power waning, Turkey is expanding its own influence across these territories without facing direct resistance. As Gonul Tol from the Middle East Institute points out, “If it translates into a longer-term weakening of Iran and allied Shiite groups, including Hezbollah, that will really pave the way for Turkey to play a more dominant role in Syria and Iraq.” Turkey’s aggressive pursuit of influence in the region places it in direct competition with Iran’s traditional stronghold.
Iran’s Diminishing Control Through Proxy Warfare
Iran’s regional control has relied heavily on proxy warfare, using groups like Hezbollah to exert power without direct involvement. The losses suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria have greatly diminished Iran’s ability to maintain this indirect influence. The airstrikes by Israel on Hezbollah positions have exposed the fragility of Iran’s strategy, which depends heavily on proxies for its strength. According to expert Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, “From a Turkish perspective, Iran and Hezbollah are the reasons Syria is in the mess that it is.” As Iran struggles to regroup, Turkey’s own ambitions in Syria are becoming more apparent, threatening to completely undercut Iran’s plans.
Turkey’s Silence Signals Opportunity
Turkey’s response to the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah has been muted, showing a measured approach to the situation. Despite being critical of Israel on many issues, Turkey has shown little public concern over Hezbollah’s setbacks, indicating a calculated move to benefit from the situation. Experts believe that Turkey’s reserved reaction signals its interest in taking advantage of the vacuum created by Iran’s weakening. As Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution notes, “Hezbollah’s decapitation diminishes the influence of Turkey’s topmost regional rival, Iran, and is not something Turkey would cry over.” Turkey’s silence has allowed it to pursue its own objectives without being directly implicated in the conflict.
A Shift in Regional Power Dynamics
The changes in the Middle East, particularly the diminishing power of Iran, have paved the way for Turkey to assert itself more boldly. While Iran struggles to maintain control over its proxies, Turkey has used this moment to strengthen its regional influence. As Hezbollah faces an existential crisis and Iran’s other regional alliances begin to fracture, Turkey is ready to step into the void left by Iran’s decline. “Though opinions in Turkiye vary on Nasrallah’s death and Hezbollah’s losses, it’s evident that Turkiye is less concerned about these losses compared to those of Hamas,” adds Unluhisarcikli. Turkey’s advantage in this regional shift is undeniable, placing it in a stronger position moving forward.
Turkey’s Strategic Advantage Over Iran
As Iran continues to face humiliation at the hands of Israeli aggression, Turkey has quietly reaped the benefits of its rival’s downfall. While Israel continues its airstrikes, weakening Iran’s key allies, Turkey has remained focused on solidifying its position. Iran’s reliance on proxy forces has proven ineffective in the face of sustained military pressure, and Turkey is poised to take full advantage of Iran’s missteps. This strategic shift has allowed Turkey to build its presence in Iraq and Syria, leveraging Iran’s losses to enhance its own influence. As the region’s power dynamics shift, Turkey’s quiet but calculated moves have placed it at the forefront of the changing geopolitical landscape.
