Gulf States’ Diplomatic Maneuvering: Shielding Themselves or Acting in Good Faith?
Israel’s threats against Iran prompted the Gulf states to urge Washington to intervene and prevent an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil sites. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar rejected the idea of allowing Israeli jets to use their airspace for this purpose. The Gulf states fear that their own oil installations could become targets for Tehran’s proxy groups if this conflict escalates. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the royal court, clarified Iran’s stance by stating, “The Iranians have stated: ‘If the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war.‘” This situation reveals the delicate balance Gulf nations must maintain between protecting their interests and avoiding direct involvement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Tehran’s Clear Warning: The Stakes of Supporting Israeli Attacks
Tehran sent a strong warning to Saudi Arabia, stressing that cooperation with Israel would invite severe retaliation from Iranian-backed militias. Iran’s message was explicit, indicating that any regional support for an Israeli attack on Iranian sites would lead to strikes on Saudi oil facilities. This puts Saudi Arabia in a difficult position, as it must navigate its relations with Iran while staying aligned with American policies. According to Reuters, Tehran’s direct warning emphasized that countries like Iraq and Yemen, home to Iran’s allies, could respond to such provocations. The Gulf states are now treading carefully, knowing that Tehran’s response could destabilize the region and harm their own critical infrastructure.
The Influence of the United States: Gulf States’ Autonomy at Risk?
The United States holds considerable sway over the Gulf states, making it plausible that Washington could pressure them to soften their stance. The US operates military bases in Qatar and Bahrain, which serve as strategic assets capable of facilitating strikes on Iran regardless of Gulf objections. Analysts argue that the US has repeatedly shown willingness to prioritize Israel’s interests, even when they conflict with broader regional stability. Gulf states may be signaling to Washington that they want to avoid escalation, but their objections may fall on deaf ears. The geopolitical landscape shows that Gulf states might not have the autonomy they claim when facing immense pressure from the US.
Plausible Deniability: Gulf States’ Diplomacy or Strategic Cover?
There are growing concerns that the Gulf states’ refusal to cooperate with Israeli strikes may be more about preserving their image than genuine opposition. Analysts suggest that the Gulf monarchies are playing a careful game, creating the appearance of resistance while maintaining the option of silent complicity. If Israel and the US proceed with their plans, Gulf states can claim they tried to prevent the conflict, thus protecting their relations with Iran. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s air defense systems, primarily operated by US personnel, would likely not be activated to stop Israeli or US jets. This level of inaction would leave the Gulf states complicit in the attack, even if they claim they did everything in their power to prevent it.
Economic Consequences: Global Markets at the Mercy of Conflict
An Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities would have disastrous consequences for the global oil market, causing prices to surge. Gulf states, as key oil producers, stand to suffer immensely from the fallout, as their own oil infrastructure could also come under fire. A Gulf source warned that oil prices could reach $120 per barrel, severely impacting global economies, including major importers like China. As tensions rise, these economic repercussions will hit oil-dependent nations and markets, causing widespread disruption. The timing is politically sensitive, with the US election season nearing, adding to the stakes of maintaining stability in global oil production.
The Gulf States’ Real Position: Complicity or Resistance?
The Gulf states’ diplomatic gestures suggest they want to avoid a direct conflict with Iran, but skepticism remains regarding their actual commitment. Their rejection of Israeli overflights and appeals to Washington may be an attempt to shield themselves from blame, not a genuine effort to prevent war. Their advanced air defense systems, many operated by American personnel, would likely not intervene if Israeli or US planes attacked Iranian oil facilities. This reluctance to take meaningful action creates a scenario where the Gulf states appear neutral while allowing conflict to unfold. The reality points to a deeper complicity, where their gestures are more symbolic than substantial.
