Caught in the Crossfire: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran’s Struggle for Regional Dominance Under U.S. Influence
The Middle East remains a battleground where ambitions for regional power collide with the inescapable reality of American influence. At the center of this struggle stand Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran—each vying for dominance, yet none able to fully escape the constraints of their dependence on the United States. As these nations maneuver through a complex geopolitical web, the ongoing Gaza war highlights their vulnerabilities and ambitions, with Iraq caught in the middle as both a theater of confrontation and a victim of external aggression.
Saudi Arabia: The Fragile Giant
Saudi Arabia’s ambition to be a regional leader is tempered by its acute awareness of its military limitations. Despite its wealth and advanced arms purchases, Riyadh knows its forces lack the capability to independently counter threats from Iran or other regional powers. This has made the kingdom heavily reliant on U.S. security guarantees, a dependence that grows more precarious in an era of shifting American priorities.
The Saudis’ pursuit of normalization with Israel under U.S. mediation stems less from a shared vision of regional stability and more from a pragmatic need to secure American military support. However, as Riyadh watches Washington’s compromises with Russia over Ukraine and its inconsistent Middle East policies, its confidence in the reliability of U.S. protection has waned. This uncertainty has driven Saudi Arabia to adopt a more multifaceted approach, engaging diplomatically with Iran even as it cautiously explores ties with Israel. The Saudis recognize that while Iran’s grip on the Levant may be weakening, Tehran remains a potent threat capable of destabilizing the kingdom through proxies and direct military action.
Iran: Strategic Depth and Military Constraints
Iran, positioned at the heart of the Middle East, continues to exploit its strategic geography to offset its military limitations. Tehran’s reliance on proxy forces across the region has been the cornerstone of its influence, but the escalating Israeli-Iranian confrontation is testing this strategy. With Hezbollah weakened in Lebanon and Syria offering diminishing returns as a staging ground, Iraq has become Tehran’s critical focus.
Iraq serves as a gateway for Iran to project power westward and to counter Israeli aggression. However, Iran’s ability to sustain its regional strategy faces logistical and operational challenges, including stretched supply lines and its inability to deploy conventional forces effectively over long distances. Tehran’s calculations are further complicated by its need to respond to Israeli airstrikes and maintain its regional alliances, even as it navigates growing domestic and international pressures.
Israel: Advanced Capabilities, Limited Reach
Israel, despite its technological and military superiority, also faces significant constraints in its quest to curb Iranian influence. Long-range strikes on Iranian targets require mid-air refueling and coordinated overflight permissions from neighboring countries—challenges that Israel cannot overcome without U.S. support. Furthermore, while Israel’s missile systems and stealth capabilities give it a tactical edge, they cannot sustain a prolonged campaign against Iran without exhausting resources or provoking catastrophic regional escalation.
The Gaza war has only intensified Israel’s focus on containing Iranian influence through military corridors in Syria and Iraq. These operations are designed to disrupt Iranian supply lines and limit Hezbollah’s ability to transport arms and fighters. Yet, Israel’s reliance on U.S. diplomatic cover and logistical assistance shows its inability to act unilaterally in the region.
Iraq: The Perpetual Battleground
Caught between Iranian ambitions and Israeli aggression, Iraq has become the unfortunate epicenter of their proxy battles. Tehran leverages its influence over Iraqi political factions and militias to secure its western flank, while Israel uses Iraqi airspace to launch strikes on Iranian targets. This dynamic leaves Iraq vulnerable to external manipulation.
The Iraqi government, unable to assert full control over its territory, has struggled to navigate the delicate balance between appeasing Iranian-backed groups and maintaining ties with the West. U.S. warnings to Iraq’s leadership about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian positions within Iraqi borders further highlight the precariousness of the country’s position.
Gaza’s Ripple Effects: A Struggle for Regional Survival
The ongoing Gaza war has spilled over into the broader Middle East, exacerbating tensions and sharpening the contest for regional dominance. For Saudi Arabia, the conflict highlights the risks of aligning too closely with Israel, particularly as public opinion in the kingdom turns against Israeli actions in Gaza. For Iran, the war presents an opportunity to rally its proxies and showcase its resistance to Israeli and American pressure. For Israel, it serves as a justification to expand military operations in Syria and Iraq, further destabilizing the region.
As the conflict drags on, the Middle East faces a critical inflection point: Will these powers escalate their competition, risking greater regional instability, or will they seek a fragile equilibrium under the watchful eye of their American benefactor?
Bound by Ambition, Chained by Dependency
Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran each harbor ambitions to dominate the Middle East, yet all remain tethered to the United States in ways that shape and constrain their strategies. The Saudis, desperate for security, navigate between American promises and regional diplomacy. Iran, facing its own limits, relies on proxies and strategic depth to maintain its influence. Israel, despite its technological edge, cannot act alone against Iran’s entrenched positions. Meanwhile, Iraq, unable to assert control, finds itself at the mercy of its neighbors’ ambitions.
In the shadow of the Gaza war, this struggle for survival and supremacy reveals a Middle East defined less by its powers and more by its dependencies—a region where the ambitions of its actors remain tightly interwoven with the interests of a distant yet indispensable superpower.
