Turkey’s PKK Ceasefire Faces Iran’s Shadow Amid Regional Power Shifts
Washington D.C. – Turkey hailed a “new phase” in its fight against terrorism on March 10, 2025, after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared a ceasefire, but fears linger that Iran might sabotage the fragile peace. The announcement follows months of regional upheaval, including Iran’s alleged pre-ceasefire support for the PKK with drones and weapons.
Turkey’s decades-long struggle with the PKK, a group the United States and Turkey designate as a terrorist organization, has claimed over 40,000 lives since 1984. The ceasefire, prompted by jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s call to lay down arms, arrives amid shifting power dynamics after the Assad regime’s fall in Syria late last year.
The Ceasefire: A Step Toward Peace
Ocalan’s appeal came on February 25, 2025, in a letter titled “Peace and Democratic Society Call.” He wrote, “PKK has completed its lifespan… All groups must lay down arms, and PKK must dissolve itself,” according to Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper. He argued that democratic progress in Turkey renders the group’s violent struggle obsolete.
The PKK responded swiftly. On March 1, the group’s Executive Committee stated, “We fully agree with the call and declare a ceasefire effective immediately,” as reported by Hurriyet. However, the group emphasized that success depends on Turkey fostering a democratic framework, a condition that hints at lingering tensions.
Turkey Welcomes the Move With Caution
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embraced the development. Speaking on February 28, he said, “A new phase to live free from terror… The terrorist organization’s excuses have vanished,” per TRT Haber. He framed the ceasefire as a chance to strengthen Turkish-Kurdish unity, disrupted by decades of conflict.
Erdogan vowed close oversight. “Turkey will ensure PKK compliance,” he added, reflecting lessons from past failed truces. His government sees broader benefits, including economic growth and a stronger democracy, with Erdogan asserting, “85 million will win,” regardless of ethnicity.
Iran’s Role Raises Alarms
Turkey’s optimism faces a shadow from Iran. Turkish security officials, cited by Turkiye Gazetesi, worry that Tehran might undermine the ceasefire. “Iran could lose its PKK ally and thus its regional leverage,” sources told the outlet, pointing to potential sabotage through Kurdish proxies loyal to Tehran.
This fear builds on earlier reports. In January, Thought Smash revealed Iran allegedly supplied 1,500 kamikaze drones to the PKK after Assad’s fall, aiming to counter Turkey’s rising influence. Yeni Safak reported that Turkey’s border vigilance delayed these shipments, exposing Iran’s strategy to arm proxies amid its Syrian setbacks.
Iran denies such accusations. Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baqaei posted on X, “We welcome PKK disarmament… Our focus is resisting Israel, not regional dominance.” He called Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s critique of Iran’s militia reliance “unconstructive,” highlighting diplomatic friction.
Turkey’s Proactive Stance
Turkey has long countered Iran’s moves. Thought Smash noted that advanced surveillance disrupted Iran’s drone deliveries in January, with Yeni Safak stating, “Cooperation between Iran and YPG/PKK came to a standstill.” This vigilance now shapes Turkey’s ceasefire monitoring.
The strategy reflects broader goals. With Syria’s new dynamics post-Assad, Turkey aims to neutralize threats like the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the YPG. AK Party sources told Turkiye Gazetesi that YPG integration into Syrian forces could eliminate Turkey’s security concerns.
Risks and Regional Stakes
Internal challenges persist. Turkiye Gazetesi reported that radical factions within Turkey’s DEM Party and the opposition CHP might resist the process, fearing political losses. Meanwhile, the PKK’s Syrian leader, Mazlum Abdi, has distanced the YPG from Ocalan’s call, signaling potential dissent.
Regionally, Iran’s maneuvers complicate the picture. After losing Syria, Tehran sold 3 million barrels of oil from China to fund proxies, per the Wall Street Journal, netting over $2 billion. Baqaei also accused Israel of exploiting Syria’s chaos, seizing the Golan Heights, as posted on X.
A Fragile Path Forward
Turkey stands at a historic juncture with the PKK ceasefire, announced just days ago. Iran’s pre-ceasefire support and potential interference loom large, testing Ankara’s resolve. The coming weeks will reveal whether this truce marks a lasting shift or succumbs to regional rivalries.
For now, Turkey balances hope with caution. As Erdogan frames it, the prize is a united nation. Yet, with Iran’s shadow lingering, the path to peace remains uncertain.
