Trump’s Protecting Syria’s New Regime

President Donald Trump shocked Washington by lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria and meeting Ahmed al-Sharaa last week. On May 13, 2025, Trump announced the policy shift in Riyadh after consulting Saudi and Turkish leaders. This decision, paired with a historic meeting with al-Sharaa, Syria’s new president, diverged from earlier U.S. caution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, justified the move by citing Syria’s imminent collapse. “The transition government was ‘maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war,’” said Rubio, Secretary of State.

Syria’s Unstable Post-Assad Era

Syria’s transitional government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, grapples with maintaining stability following Bashar al-Assad’s 2024 overthrow. Economic ruin has devastated the nation, with oil production falling to 40,000–80,000 barrels daily from 400,000 pre-war. Clashes in March 2025, which killed over 1,000, intensified fears of renewed conflict. “Syria faced ‘bloody factional fighting’” without immediate aid, warned Rubio, Secretary of State, referencing the civil war’s devastation. The U.S. initially urged HTS to adopt inclusive governance, cautious of its jihadist origins.

A Sudden Policy Shift

Trump’s sanctions relief stemmed from months of discreet preparations, including the Treasury’s GL25 license and Caesar Act waiver. This policy seeks to facilitate financial transactions and encourage investment to bolster Syria’s economy. “If we engage them, it may work out. If we didn’t engage them, it was guaranteed to not work out,” said Rubio, Secretary of State. The al-Sharaa meeting, the first U.S.-Syria presidential encounter in 25 years, marked a pragmatic outreach. “The sanctions relief aligns with Trump’s goal to help the new government thrive and combat ISIS,” said Thomas Barrack, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey.

Congressional Doubts and Risks

Republican lawmakers voiced surprise and unease over Trump’s swift engagement with al-Sharaa, given his HTS ties. Many challenge the decision to lift sanctions without assurances of inclusive governance. Rubio, Secretary of State, acknowledged the risks but emphasized the dire alternative of renewed conflict. Granting access to Syria’s central bank might strengthen HTS, potentially sidelining moderate groups. Nevertheless, Rubio’s warning of “‘a full-scale civil war of epic proportions’” highlighted the urgency behind the decision.

Europe’s Aligned Action

The European Union quickly mirrored Trump’s move, agreeing on May 20, 2025, to lift economic sanctions on Syria. “There can be no peace without the path to economic recovery and we all need [a] stable Syria,” said Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief. The EU targeted Syria’s central bank to restore financial connections, setting a June 1 deadline. “This decision is reversible,” Kallas, EU foreign policy chief, added, citing risks of sectarian violence or ISIS resurgence. Previous EU attempts in February 2025 faltered amid U.S. restrictions.

Economic Potential vs. Instability

Sanctions relief aims to restore vital services, addressing Syria’s pressing humanitarian needs after years of conflict. “The policy would ‘facilitate the provision of electricity, energy, water, and sanitation,’” said Rubio, Secretary of State, supporting recovery efforts. Pre-war EU-Syria trade reached $7.9 billion in 2010, indicating potential for economic revival. Yet, HTS’s governance history and persistent sectarian tensions cast doubt on lasting stability. “The EU’s move is ‘a pivotal moment,’” said the Syrian Foreign Ministry, though reforms remain essential.

Exposing Syria’s Fragile Crossroads

Trump’s sanctions relief and al-Sharaa engagement reveal a desperate bid to avert Syria’s collapse, driven by Rubio’s warnings. The U.S.-EU alignment exposes Syria’s delicate balance between economic recovery and renewed conflict. HTS’s ability to govern inclusively remains unproven, amplifying risks of sectarian division. “Maybe weeks remain to avert catastrophe,” said Rubio, Secretary of State, highlighting the narrow window for stability.