The Unexpected Outcome of the Election
Three weeks ago, President Emmanuel Macron of France called a snap election, aiming to regain political control after a significant defeat in the European election. However, in the first round of voting on Sunday, the far-right National Rally led the polls, while the left-wing New Popular Front coalition secured second place. Macron’s Renaissance party finished in a distant third.
The Impending Victory of the Far Right
Now, with approximately 33 percent of the vote, the far right is poised for a remarkable victory in the second round. Should National Rally achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly by winning 289 seats or more, Macron would be compelled to invite Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the party, to form a government. Under this “cohabitation” system with the president, National Rally would be empowered to implement its stringent anti-migrant policies. This would mark the first time since the Vichy regime that France would be governed by the far right.
Potential Scenarios and Political Crisis
More likely, however, is that National Rally will fall short of a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. This would lead to a complex situation where the largest party, National Rally, would attempt to garner support from other parties to pass legislation. Yet, apart from a few defectors from the right-wing Republicans, no party is likely to enable the far right to govern. With Macron presiding over a divided and uncooperative assembly, France would face a profound political crisis without a clear solution.
Limited Options for Macron
In the event of a hung parliament, Macron would have very few options. No modern French president has encountered such a political and institutional stalemate. His only viable option would be to attempt to form a national unity government, comprising deputies from Renaissance, the Republicans, and possibly some moderate deputies from the New Popular Front. However, it is doubtful that this opportunistic coalition would achieve a majority.
If the numbers were there, the question of who would serve as prime minister arises. The candidate would need to be a political figure capable of working with the center-left, center-right, and right. Such a consensus candidate is scarce in contemporary French politics. This would only be a temporary solution, as caretaker governments lack political legitimacy and can achieve little beyond passing budgets to keep the economy afloat. After a year, the earliest constitutionally permissible time to reuse the dissolution power, Macron would likely have to dissolve the assembly and call another election, bringing France back to a volatile square one.
The Future of National Unity Government
The prospects for a national unity government appear bleak. Despite Macron’s call for a “great democratic and republican union” to defeat National Rally, he has spent more time criticizing the left than the far right. By rejecting what he terms the “two extremes,” he hopes to lure back center-left voters to his centrist coalition. However, Macron is deeply unpopular. By suggesting that the left is as much a threat as the far right, he might also dissuade centrist voters from supporting New Popular Front candidates in runoffs against National Rally candidates. Their abstention could facilitate the election of more far-right deputies.
The Dominance of the Far Right
National Rally is likely to emerge as the election’s winner, with or without a majority. The party is now dominant in almost all categories of French society and most regions of France. Only major cities continue to resist this surge. National Rally leads in all age groups except 18-to-24-year-olds, though it also attracts considerable support from younger voters. It is strong among blue-collar and white-collar workers, employees, and professionals. A notable shift is that retired people, previously Macron’s most faithful constituency, significantly shifted to the far right in last month’s European election.
Macron’s Role in the Far Right’s Rise
When Macron was first elected in 2017, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally had only eight deputies in the National Assembly, far fewer than the more than 200 it is poised to win on Sunday. Macron promised to protect France from right-wing extremism. Yet, since coming to power, he has adopted policies from National Rally’s playbook, passing controversial legislation such as the 2021 separatism bill, which ostracized Muslims, and a hawkish immigration bill adopted last year with far-right support. Far from defeating the far right, Macron has inadvertently paved the way for its success.
The Implications for Macron and France
It is somewhat fitting that the main political casualty of this tumultuous period may be Macron himself. Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, it is evident that Macron’s unnecessary gamble has dramatically failed, and he is responsible for the impending political chaos. His authority, both nationally and internationally, will be significantly diminished, and his presidency effectively undermined. He will likely face increasing pressure to resign.
However, Macron’s loss is also France’s loss. With no governing force other than potentially the far right, the country is entering a period of considerable instability. For a nation facing significant economic, social, and military challenges, this is a daunting prospect. Such disorder is unlikely to diminish the appeal of the far right, which promises change from a broken system when the presidential election comes around in 2027.
